Executive Summary

Q4 2024 revenue was $94.2M; the Company reported a $215M non‑cash impairment at Sunrise Coal driving a GAAP net loss, while Adjusted EBITDA was $6.2M (~3x YoY) and operating cash flow was $32.5M .
Mix pivot accelerated: electric sales were $69.7M (74% of Q4 revenue) vs $37.1M (31%) a year ago, while coal fell to $23.4M (25%) vs $81.3M (68%) YoY .
Forward book strengthened: total contracted revenue to third parties rose to $1.15B through 2029 (power $685.7M; coal $460.7M) and bank debt fell to $44M at year‑end from $91.5M a year ago .
Q4 results vs S&P Global consensus: revenue slightly missed ($94.22M vs $95.46M*) and EPS slightly missed (-$0.147 vs -$0.13*); management highlighted data center demand and signed an exclusivity agreement with up to $5M in milestone payments through June 2025 as the key stock catalyst .
Note: the Q4 press release shows operating cash flow of $32.5M, while the CFO referenced $38.9M on the call; the difference reflects timing/contract cash movements discussed verbally—use the press release figures for official reporting .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Rapid transition toward an IPP model: “2024 was a transformative year…from a bituminous coal producer to a vertically integrated independent power producer,” with electric sales now the majority of revenue .
- Commercial momentum: forward energy, capacity and coal sales to third parties reached $1.15B through 2029, up from $937M at Q3; contracted power revenue rose to $685.7M (2025–2029) .
- Balance sheet improved: total bank debt reduced to $44.0M (vs $70.0M at 9/30/24 and $91.5M at 12/31/23); liquidity increased to $37.8M (vs $34.9M at 9/30/24) .
- Power profitability improved: power segment gross margin reached $62.13/MWh in Q4 vs $52.70 in Q3 as dispatch and pricing improved .
- Data center pathway: signed a 105‑business‑day exclusivity agreement with a leading global developer including up to $5M of payments; management expects pricing “above the forward curve” .
What Went Wrong
- Large non‑cash impairment: approximately $215M write‑down at Sunrise Coal reflecting reduced coal demand/prices as the business pivots to power .
- Coal headwinds: coal sales dropped to $23.4M (25% of revenue) from $81.3M (68%) YoY; restructuring reduced production ~40% to align with internal fuel needs, creating near‑term revenue pressure .
- Spot power pricing volatility: mild weather and abundant natural gas weighed on 2024 pricing; firm sales used selectively to manage risk while targeting higher‑margin unit‑contingent contracts longer term .
- Regulatory capex on horizon: potential Indiana co‑firing requirement after 2032 implies future capex; studies underway (timing/cost not yet disclosed) .

Financial Results

Headline results vs prior quarters

Metric ($USD Millions unless noted)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Operating Revenue	$90.9	$105.0	$94.8
Electric Sales	$56.8	$71.7	$69.7
Coal Sales (3rd party)	$32.8	$31.7	$23.3
Other Revenue	$1.3	$1.6	$1.8
Net Income (Loss)	$(10.2)	$1.6	$(215.8)
Operating Cash Flow	$23.5	$(12.9)	$32.5
Adjusted EBITDA (non‑GAAP)	$(5.8)	$9.6	$6.2

Notes: Press release headline cites Q4 total revenue of $94.2M; the financial summary table shows $94.8M; management attributes differences to reporting classifications and timing; use the table for period comparability .

Q4 results vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Beat/Miss
Revenue	$95.46M*	$94.22M*	Miss (~1.3%)*
Primary EPS	-$0.13*	-$0.147*	Miss (≈$0.02)*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment/KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Power MWh generated (mm)	~1.10	1.16
Power gross margin ($/MWh)	$52.70	$62.13
Bank debt (period end)	$70.0	$44.0
Liquidity (period end)	$34.9	$37.8

Forward contracted position (before intercompany eliminations)

Item	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	Total
Contracted Power revenue ($M)	$214.22	$210.40	$148.69	$95.03	$17.33	$685.67
Contracted coal revenue – 3rd party ($M)	$150.57	$138.73	$141.85	$29.50	—	$460.65
Total contracted revenue – consolidated ($M)	$364.79	$349.13	$290.54	$124.53	$17.33	$1,146.32

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
CapEx	FY 2025	n/a	~$66M; ~~20% (~~$14.8M) for EPA ELG compliance	New
Capacity payments vs fixed costs	Ongoing	“Cover fixed costs” (~$60M)	Reiterated (~$60M)	Maintained
Forward contracted power revenue (3P)	2025–2029	$616.89M (as of 9/30/24)	$685.67M (as of 12/31/24)	Raised
Forward contracted coal revenue (3P)	2025–2029	$320.28M (as of 9/30/24)	$460.65M (as of 12/31/24)	Raised
Total contracted revenue (3P, consolidated)	2025–2029	$937.17M (as of 9/30/24)	$1,146.32M (as of 12/31/24)	Raised
Data center transaction status	1H 2025	Non‑binding term sheet (Q3)	105‑business‑day exclusivity + up to $5M payments through June 2025	New milestone

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Prior-2)	Q3 2024 (Prior-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
Data center/power to hyperscalers	RFP process; active negotiations; MOU with utility partners	Signed non‑binding term sheet; pricing above forward curve	Exclusivity through early June 2025; up to $5M in payments; still above forward curve	Improving momentum
Power pricing/nat gas backdrop	Weak spot pricing; high gas inventories; selective firm sales	Incremental improvement; prepaid PPA aids liquidity	Higher dispatch/gross margin $62.13/MWh; optimism for 2025+	Improving
Coal operations/costs	Restructuring; workforce reductions; cash cost ~low $40s goal	Efficiency projects; stabilization	Cash costs “low 40s” by Q4; reduced production ~40%	Improving costs; scaled down
Accredited capacity/MISO	Discussed scarcity value	Emphasized value; accreditation changes monitored	Capacity a key value driver for data center deals	Supportive
Regulatory/co‑firing	—	—	Indiana law may require coal plants to co‑fire gas by 2032; feasibility study initiated	New monitoring
Balance sheet/liquidity	Debt down; $45M prepay PPA	$60M prepaid PPA post‑Q3; debt cut to $23.5M at Oct‑end	YE bank debt $44M; liquidity $37.8M	Strengthening

Management Commentary

CEO strategic framing: “This deliberate transition aligns with market trends and reflects our conviction in the superior economics of the IPP business model…we remain encouraged by our partner’s commitment and believe this strategic partnership will drive long‑term value for our shareholders.”
On impairment/coal pivot: “These strategic actions along with lower long‑term coal price projections resulted in a fourth‑quarter non‑cash write‑down…~$215 million…underscores the foresight of our transition to power generation” .
Power outlook: “Gross margin…was $62.13/MWh sold compared to $52.70 in the third quarter…forward price curves indicate margins…continue to increase” .
Data center deals: “We still expect a premium to the forward curve…competition among hyperscalers continues to put upward pressure on the economics” .
CFO on 2025 CapEx: “We have $66 million forecasted…about $14.8 million for the ELG rules” and “capacity payments could cover fixed costs…normally about $60 million” .

Q&A Highlights

Data center process and timing: Management would not detail locations but confirmed multiple potential projects in Indiana; exclusivity through early June is the best timing signal; no interim updates expected before a definitive agreement .
Regulatory path/co‑firing: Feasibility work underway to enable natural gas co‑firing by 2032; proximity to gas line is favorable; cost/timing TBD .
Asset acquisition strategy: Evaluating coal and gas plants across multiple states; fuel control is a “nice‑to‑have” not a must; case‑by‑case economics .
Pricing construct: Company typically sells majority of power on unit/plant‑contingent basis; expects premium to forward curve in long‑term data center contracts .
Coal costs/internal supply: Q4 cash costs “low 40s”/ton; Merom fuel sourced from Sunrise and third parties for diversification .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus vs actuals (Q4 2024): Revenue $95.46M* vs actual $94.22M* (miss); Primary EPS -$0.13* vs actual -$0.147* (miss). The number of contributing estimates was 2 for revenue and EPS*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Caution on EBITDA comparability: Company reports Adjusted EBITDA of $6.2M (non‑GAAP) for Q4; Street EBITDA methodologies may not match company’s non‑GAAP definition, so we anchor on revenue and EPS for beat/miss framing .